EDGAR aims to inform scientists and policy makers on the evolution of the emission inventories over time for all world countries and to provide the scientific community 0.1degX0.1deg gridmaps representing the emissions sources.
EDGAR contributed to research projects with advice on emission gridmaps and timeseries.
Trends in Global CO2 Emissions.
by J.G.J. Olivier, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean,. J.H.A.W. Peters, November 2016
2015, the year of the landmark Paris Agreement was remarkable. Not only was 2015 the hottest year since records began in 1880, but top emitter China started to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. As a result, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production and other processes decreased in 2015 by 0.1% compared to 2014. China (with 29% share in global total) and the United States (with 14% share) gave an example by effectively reducing their CO2 emissions by 0.7% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2015 compared to 2014. Also emissions in the Russian Federation (5% share) and Japan (3.5% share) decreased by 3.4% and 2.2%, respectively. However, the European Union (EU-28) (10% share) and India (7% share) report increases of 1.3% and 5.1%, respectively. Taking into account the uncertainty in the trend we conclude that in 2015 global CO2 emissions for these sources have stalled. Since global population growth is 1.2% per year, stalling of global emissions means per definition a 1.2% decrease in global per capita CO2 emissions from 5.0 ton CO2/cap in 2014 to 4.9 ton CO2/cap in 2015. On a global scale, the slowdown in emissions since 2012 has lasted for four years now and also reflects structural changes in the global economy, such as improvements in energy efficiency and in the energy mix in major emitting countries, as anticipated in previous CO2 reports of Olivier et al. (2015, 2014). However, further mitigation of fossil-fuel use is called for to achieve the large absolute decreases in global greenhouse gas emissions that are necessary to meet the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming to well below 2degC. The reductions needed to meet this target are still achievable through further deployment of mitigation measures, provided that the deployment is implemented both at large scale and fast. The Clean Energy Package, proposed by the European Commission on 30th November 2016 is a good example in this direction.
More info can be found in the CO2 report 2016.
Timeseries can be downloaded from CO2 time series 1990-2015 per region/country and CO2 time series 1990-2015 per capita for world countries and CO2 emissions per GDP for each country 1990-2015.
The Covenant of Mayors: GHG Emissions Achievements and Projections
by A. Kona, G. Melica, A. Iancu, B. Koffi, P. Zancanella, S. Rivas Calvete, P. Bertoldi, G. Janssens-Maenhout, F. Monforti-Ferrario, November 2016
presented at the Energy for cities event at COP22 by P. Bertoldi (European Commission, JRC)
This JRC report assesses the success of the 8-yr old Covenant of Mayors initiative. After the adoption of the EU Climate and Energy Package (updated under COM/2015/080), the European Commission launched in 2008 the Covenant of Mayors initiative as a way to endorse and support the efforts deployed by local authorities in the implementation of sustainable energy policies. The Energy DG of the European Commission extended end last year the mandate to cover not only mitigation but also adaptation and the time horizon to 2030 (in line with EU’s 2030 climate and energy package) and renamed the initiative as the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. In September 2016 already 213 million citizens are covered by a city that adhered to the initiative, which proves the successful outreach to local authorities at various levels (from municipalities to regions and provinces), nonprofit organizations and networks. The minimum mitigation target of 20% greenhouse gases emission reduction by 2020 was, in September 2016, already overcommitted with 7% point by 5910 signatories (representing 204.01 million citizens) that set an overall reduction target of 27%.
More info can be found in the report
Also the 1 Gigaton Coalition lists CoM as one of the success stories in their report "Renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries: contributions to reducing global emissions", released on 3 November 2016. Followup is foreseen with a methodological workshop at COP22 on 17th November.
Towards a European Operational Observing System to Monitor Fossil CO2 emissions, by P. Ciais, D. Crisp, H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, R. Engelen, M. Heimann, G. Janssens-Maenhout, P. Rayner, M. Scholze, reviewed by P. Bergamaschi, M. Dowell, G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, B. Pinty, H. Zunker, October 2015
presented at the EarthInfo event of UNFCCC at COP22 by B. Pinty (European Commission, JRC - DG GROW)
This European Commission (EC, DG GROW - JRC) report spells out the ingredients for a European CO2 Space programme under the Copernicus framework. It provides the roadmap for a European integrated observation system dedicated to the monitoring of fossil CO2 emissions using independent atmospheric observations. The CO2 monitoring system comprises: (1) atmospheric CO2 measurements obtained from dedicated space-borne sensors, complemented by in-situ networks, which together allow for the separation of fossil CO2 emissions from natural fluxes, (2) the operational provision of bottom-up fossil CO2 emission maps, at high spatial and temporal resolution, and near-real-time updates, (3) an operational data-assimilation system, which will integrate atmospheric measurements with bottom-up information into consistent and accurate estimates of fossil CO2 emissions and their trends. In followup of the identified current and future scientific and technical capacities, the EC (DG GROW/ Copernicus) established CO2 Monitoring Task Forces, with ESA (Earth Observation Programme) to advise on the pre-operational implementation of a space component and with JRC to set-up a specific European verification system with an operational data infrastructure for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The ultimate goal for the EC is to enable an observation system to monitor global anthropogenic GHG emissions with operational and internationally coordinated capabilities likely to be available in the 2030s.
More info can be found in the presentation of 08-11-2016 or in the CO2 monitoring report of 23-10-2015
Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts
The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129% (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71% higher NOx and 69% higher PM2.5emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has played in reducing emissions in 2010. However, stagnation of energy consumption at 1970 levels, but with 2010 fuel mix and energy efficiency, and assuming current (year 2010) technology and emission control standards, would have lowered today's NOx emissions by ca. 38%, SO2 by 50% and PM2.5 by 12% in Europe. A reduced-form chemical transport model is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the associated impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of EU technologies and standards inside as well as outside Europe. We assess that the interplay of policy and technological advance in Europe had substantial benefits in Europe, but also led to an important improvement of particulate matter air quality in other parts of the world.
The paper can be downloaded at Monica Crippa, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank Dentener, Diego Guizzardi, Katerina Sindelarova, Marilena Muntean, Rita Van Dingenen, Claire Granier: Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3825-3841, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3825-2016, 2016.
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Stagnation of the global CO2 emissions in 2014.
JRC report 98184 / PBL report 1803 November 2015
Are global CO2 emissions still rising? Yes, but after slowing down for two years, their increase almost stalled in 2014. In fact, the emissions from fossil fuel combustion and from industrial processes totalled to 35.7 billion tonnes CO2, showing only a 0.5% increase in 2014 compared to 2013. At the same time the world’s economy grew with 3%, showing a partial decoupling between the growth of global CO2 emissions and that of the economy. In 2014, per capita primary energy consumption decreased compared to the previous year, for the first time since 1998, if the recession year of 2009 is excluded. The mild winter considerably helped to limit fossil fuel demand for space heating, particularly in Europe. To the top 4 emitters belong China (29.6%), the United States (15.0%), the European Union (EU28) (9.6%) and India (6.5%), of which only India is showing a considerable increase in CO2 emissions of 7.8% in 2014 compared to 2013. China and USA both showed only a very small increase of 0.9% in 2014 compared to 2013 whereas EU28 showed even a reduction of 5.4%. It should be noted that the quality of the emissions estimate depends strongly on large emitters, such as China, who revised this year its coal statistics with increases of 7-13%, which implies 6-11% higher CO2 emissions for the period 2000-2013.
More info can be found in the CO2 report 2015.
With corrigendum: Errata
Timeseries can be downloaded from CO2 time series 1990-2014 per region/country and CO2 time series 1990-2014 per capita for world countries and CO2 emissions per GDP for each country 1990-2014.