EDGAR Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

What does EDGAR offer as GHG emissions beyond the UNFCCC?

Under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), all Parties are invited to submit their inventories of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). The annual submissions of the developed countries report full GHG timeseries, whereas the less frequent national communications of developing countries quantify only the GHG totals of a selected base year. With the Paris Agreement of December 2015, all countries are encouraged to report frequent updates of inventories and nationally determined mitigation options.

This requires an anchor from which the greenhouse gas reductions can be monitored, for which a full geo-coverage of the emissions on Earth is needed. The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research provides timeseries and gridmaps of all Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gases: CO2, methane, N2O and F-gases, calculated for all countries in a consistent way applying the same methodology. As such, EDGAR sheds some light on the most recent trends (till year x-1) of the global CO2 as well as on the trends of the CO2 per capita or per GDP from another angle. A reduction of the global CO2 emissions trend is in sight, however, more efforts are needed.

EDGAR Emissions of Air Pollutants

Overview of EDGAR emissions of air pollutants, aerosols and heavy metal.

Using the same international statistics of human activities, the global emissions database can extend its chemical substances from greenhouse gases with all air pollutants, aerosols and even heavy metal. This requires an additional careful evaluation of the technology, region-specific emission factors and end-of-pipe abatement measures.

EDGAR Emissions scenarios

Impact of EU legislation on global air quality.

The first air quality policy of the European Union dates back to 1970. Since then, many EU policies further led to a 35% reduction of fine particles in the atmosphere over the period of 1970 to 2010. This has improved public health across Europe. An FP7 research project, PEGASOS, compares the current amount of air pollution simulated across Europe to a scenario in which no air quality legislation or new emissions technologies had been introduced since 1970. Such policies to reduce emissions include EU regulations for the improvement in fuel quality and the adoption of European emissions standards in transport. The study also looked at technological advances to reduce emissions, such as the introduction of particle filters and catalytic convertors.

EDGAR v4.2 of November 2011

Introduction

The new version v4.2 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends, based on publicly available statistics, for the use in atmospheric models and policy evaluation. This scientific independent emission inventory is characterized by a coherent world historical trend and previous version v4.1 of July 2010. The EDGARv4.2 inventory covers the time period from 1970 to 2008 including the following chemical substances:

• Updated ‘Kyoto Protocol’ greenhouse gases : CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, CF₆, NF3
• The air pollutants: CO, NO_x, NMVOC, SO₂ and NH₃
• And in addition as aerosol: PM₁₀

Data are presented for all countries, with emissions provided per main source category, and spatially allocated on a 0.1°x0.1° grid over the globe.

Note: Source categories for emissions per country used the source definitions of the 1996 IPCC guidelines for National GHG Emission Inventories. Emission inventory compilation and review is further ongoing in particular focusing on carbonaceous speciation (BC, OC, PM_2.5), speciation of the non-CH₄ volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) other greenhouse gases (SO₂F₂) and ozone depleting substances (CFCs, MCF, HCs and HCFCs).

Global emission trends (1970-2008)

Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gases

The new EDGARv4.2 dataset upgraded the emission inventory from 2000 onwards with extended time series 2000-2008. The dataset differs from the previous v4.1 by less than 5% for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O regarding the data until 2005. The new dataset shows that CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O all increased annually between 1% and 6% in the period 2000 - 2005 and registered a further increase in 2008 compared to 2005 of 7%, 2% and 5% for CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ respectively, contrary to any of 5 consecutive years in the nineties. Furthermore, the data compilation for SF₆ has been completed with SF₆ production emissions seeing a 18% increase in 2008 compared to 2005. A global view on all Kyoto Protocol gases expressed in CO₂-eq (GWP-100 values from IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR)) is given in Figure 1a (CO₂ -incl.LULUCF, CH₄, N₂O, F-gases) and 1b (HFCs, PFCs, SF₆). Please note that, conform with UNFCCC definition for CO₂, these figures exclude CO₂ from savannah and agricultural waste burning (IPCC categories 4E and 4F) as well as CO₂ from biomass used as fuel (IPCC sector 1) and from biogenic carbon in waste incineration (IPCC category 6C). CO₂ from large-scale biomass burning, post-burn decay of remaining biomass in IPCC sector 5 and CO₂ stock changes in living forest biomass (categories 5A1&2, 5F2 and 5FL1) are added separately.

Note: The sector 5 is often referred to as the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry), for which EDGAR presently reports CO₂ emissions related to forests and peatlands, CO₂ stock in living forest biomass (source FRA2010) (5FL1) as well as emissions of other substances. The IPCC inventory guidelines assume no net contribution to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from biomass burned as fuel in IPCC sector 1 (energy) nor from biomass burned in IPCC categories 4E, 4F, 5C, 5F, 6C), since this is assumed to short-cycle carbon (regrowth within a year). To the extent that fuelwood (and roundwood) produced from forests is not produced sustainably, this should be accounted for in the calculation of net CO₂ removals (‘sinks’) from maturing of existing forests or newly forested areas.

Fig.1a: Global total GHG emissions in Pg CO2-eq/yr (using the UNFCCC definition for CO2, including LULUCF (categories 5A1&2,5F2) (GWP100 values of SAR) [click to enlarge].

Fig.1b: Global total F-gas emissions in Pg CO2-eq/yr (GWP100 values of SAR) [click to enlarge].

A sector-specific break-down for CO2 emissions, including LULUCF categories 5A1, 5A2 and 5F, is shown in Figure 2 for 2008.

Fig.2: Composition in 2008 of the contributing sectors to global CO2 emissions (conform UNFCCC definition). [click to enlarge].

The contribution to the total global warming potential by the different UNFCCC direct greenhouse gases differs strongly per emitting sector. Figure 3 details the subsector division of the main IPCC sectors energy (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from fuels), industrial processes (non-combustion), agriculture, LULUCF and waste.

Fig.3a Contribution (in percentage) in 2008 of the three main GHG and F-gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: energy and fossil fuel production with 1A1a (power industry), 1A1bc (fuel refineries and transformation), 1A2 (industrial combustion), 1A3a (domestic aviation), 1A3b (road transport), 1A3c (rail transport), 1A3d (inland waterways), 1A3e (off-road transport), 1A4 (residential), 1B1 (fugitive emissions from solid fuel production and distribution), 1B2 (fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas production and distribution), 1A3aii (international aviation) and 1A3dii (international shipping).

Fig.3b Contribution (in percentage) in 2008 of the three main GHG and F-gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: industrial processes and solvents with 2A1 (cement production), 2A2 (lime production), 2A7 (other mineral products), 2B (chemical industry), 2C (metal production), 2D (other production), 2E (Halocarbon and SF6 production), 2F (consumption of Halocarbons and SF6), 2G (other industrial processes), 3 (solvent and other product use).

Fig.3c Contribution (in percentage) in 2008 of the three main GHG and F-gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: waste with 4A (enteric fermentation), 4B (manure management), 4C (rice cultivation), 4D1 (direct agricultural soil emissions), 4D2 (manure in pasture/range/paddock), 4D3 (indirect N2O emissions from agriculture), 4D4 (other direct emissions from agricultural soils). (Savannah burning 4E and agricultural waste burning 4F are not taken up in the contribution conform with the UNFCCC definition.)

Fig.3d Contribution (in percentage) in 2008 of the three main GHG and F-gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: waste with 6A (solid waste disposal), 6B (wastewater handling), 6C (waste incineration), 6D (other waste emissions).

GHG trends in industrialized and developing countries (1970-2008)

All emissions are detailed at country level following consistently the 2006 IPCC methodology, with activity data from publicly available mainly international statistics and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the IPCC 2006 guidelines for GHG emission inventories. Thus we provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries that go beyond the highly aggregated UNFCCC reports of these, so-called, non-Annex I countries. Moreover, the time-series back in time to 1970 provides for the UNFCCC trends a historical evolvement. However, the latter has to be interpreted with care at the break-up of some countries such as the former Soviet Union.

The very different nature of most developing countries (with many located in the tropics) and the industrialized ones (mainly at higher Northern latitudes) implies very different emissions from large-scale biomass burning. Therefore GHG emissions have been compared in Figure 4 for Annex I and Non-Annex I countries, including and excluding the LULUCF emissions. Emissions from international shipping and aviation are added separately for completeness.

Fig.4: Historical GHG emissions trend for Annex I countries, Non-Annex I countries (both, excluding and including the LULUCF sector), and international shipping and aviation. An indication of the uncertainty is given by the error bar for the year 2000. [click to enlarge].

Main air pollutant emissions in most polluting countries

The emissions of main air pollutants considered in EDGAR are precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NO_x) and acidifying substances (NO_x, NH₃, SO₂), which present a different behaviour than GHG. All emissions are detailed at country level following consistently the same technology-based methodology, the same activity data to ensure consistent multi-pollutant source modeling and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from national statistics or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. End-of-pipe abatement measures included are country-specific or at least regional (over 4000 are taken into account). When comparing regional air pollution of CO, NMVOC, NO_x, NH₃, and SO₂ emissions, it is noted that highest emitting countries are mainly amongst non-Annex I countries. Table 1 gives the top 5 emitters for 2008 in decreasing order for the different chemical substances. NO_x emissions in China show an almost 40% increase in the period 2000-2005 and a further 26% in 2008 with respect to 2005, while in the period 1995-2000 the increase was modest (1%). Other countries with large growth rates over 2005-2008 are China, India and Indonesia.

Table1: Top 5 emitters of main air pollutants in 2008 (including forest and peat fire emissions) (with annual total in Tg species)

CO		NMVOC		NOx (NO2)		NH3		SO2
Tg in 2008
China	106.42	China	22.20	China	20.74	China	11.23	China	39.90
Central African Republic	105.44	USA	12.65	USA	14.23	India	4.37	USA	8.77
Sudan	60.88	India	11.30	Int. shipping	13.76	USA	3.56	India	8.59
India	58.33	Russia	6.75	India	7.13	Brazil	2.71	Int. shipping	8.35
the Democratic Republic of Congo	53.02	Central African Republic	6.44	Russia	4.26	Indonesia	1.62	Russia	5.81

The air pollutant trends on a global scale confirm the following observations:

- CO: in 2008 CO shows a decrease of 1.5% compared to 2005. The CO emissions mainly occur in Africa due to the dominating residential (biofuels) and road transport sectors.

Fig. 5a: Global CO emissions trend 1970-2008 including LULUCF emissions in Tg CO/yr. [click to enlarge].

Fig.5b: Global CO emissions trend 1970-2008 excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg CO/yr. [click to enlarge].

- NMVOC: shows globally increases over the decade 1995-2005 of 4%. These NMVOC emissions are mainly caused by the category fuel production and transmission and are mainly spread over industrialized countries. Compared to 2005, NMVOC decreased in 2008 with 1%.

Fig. 6a: Global NMVOC emissions trend 1970-2008 including LULUCF emissions in Tg NMVOCs/yr [click to enlarge].

Fig.6b: Global NMVOC emissions trend 1970-2008 excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NMVOCs/y [click to enlarge].

- NOx: reflects the dominating energy sector with the increasing energy demand and gradual implementation of end-of-pipe abatement measures. It shows similar decreases in the early nineties as for SO2, but shortly followed up by further increases of up to 6% again in the newly industrialized countries. In the latter the implementation of end-of-pipe abatement measures only recently started. In 2008 NOx increased with 4.25% compared to 2005.

Fig.7a: Global NOx emissions trend 1970-2008 including LULUCF emissions in Tg NO2/yr. [click to enlarge].

Fig.7b: Global NOx emissions trend 1970-2008 excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NO2/yr. [click to enlarge].

- NH3: shows globally increases over the decade 1995-2005 of 13%, similar to NOx, but emitted by completely different sources. In the case of NH3, agriculture-dependent countries show large emissions in particular from agricultural soils and manure management. In 2008 NH3 decreased with 0.4% compared to 2005.

Fig.8a: Global NH3 emissions trend 1970-2008 including LULUCF emissions in Tg NH3/yr. [click to enlarge].

Fig.8b: Global NH3 emissions trend 1970-2008 excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NH3/yr. [click to enlarge].

- SO2: shows strong decreases in the nineties (1990-2000) up to 20% mainly caused by end-of-pipe abatement measures in Europe and North America, but since 2001 it presents recent global annual increases of up to 7.6% in 2005, mainly caused by the economically emerging countries and regions such as China, India, the Middle-East and lastly Brazil aside of the international shipping. In 2008 an increase of 8% is observed compared to 2005.

Fig.9a: Global SO2 emissions trend 1970-2008 including LULUCF emissions in Tg SO2/yr. [click to enlarge].

Fig.9b: Global SO2 emissions trend 1970-2008 excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg SO2/yr. The latter LULUCF sector contributed about 3% (calculated over the total 1970-2008 emissions). [click to enlarge].