RETROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS

Scenarios description

Based on statistics and expert knowledge, EDGARv4.3.1 considers changes in activity data, fuel and air pollution abatement technology, as it likely happened during the past 4 decades. Additionally, three retrospective scenarios are created, the first simulating the complete stagnation of technology (STAG_TECH: lack of abatement measures and no improvement in emission standards), the second assuming constant fuel mixture and consumption as they were in 1970 (STAG_FUEL: no change in human activities), and the third considering unchanged energy consumption since 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010 (STAG_ENERGY).

The following scenarios are here considered:

1. Reference (REF): EDGARv4.3.1 data represent our best estimate of the development of emissions (activity levels, emission factors, technology) for 1970-2010.
2. Stagnation of fuel consumption (STAG_FUEL): the activity data (fuel consumption and mix) are worldwide kept constant at 1970 levels (for the power and non-power industry and for road transport), while emission factors vary over time and End-of-Pipe measures are installed as in the REF scenario.
3. Stagnation of technology (STAG_TECH): no further EoP measures are implemented since 1970 in Europe for the power generation and road transport sectors. Emission factors (EF) of 1970 are projected in 2010 for power and non-power industry and road transport for the entire world.
4. Stagnation of energy consumption (STAG_ENERGY): the energy consumption (TJ) is worldwide kept constant at 1970 levels (for the power and non-power industry and for road transport), while emission factors vary over time and End-of-Pipe measures are installed as in the REF scenario and energy efficiency of 2010 is considered. This scenario is expected to provide the lowest emissions and illustrates how much of the emission reductions achieved in 2010 is off-set by higher energy consumption.

Data from these scenarios are available in the following tables as:

1. Overview excel files, containing global, European and country level emissions for each sector and substance for the years 2010 and 1970.
2. Scenarios gridmaps with a resolution of 0.1deg x0.1deg for the year 2010 (yearly and monthly files) by sector. Gridmaps are provided as txt files and netCDF(nc).

The considered emission sectors are the ones of EDGARv4.3.1:

• AGR: Agriculture
• ENE: Power generation
• IND: Manufacturing industry
• OTH: Other sources
• PPA: Process emissions during production and application
• PRO: Fuel production/transmission
• RCO: Residential combustion
• REF: Oil production and refining
• SWD: Solid waste disposal
• TNR: Non road transport
• TRF: Transformation industry
• TRO: Road transport

Remark: The retrospective scenarios are available in 2 versions differing only for some proxies used to spatially distribute the emissions. The first version of this dataset has been published in the paper by Crippa et al. 2016 (http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3825/2016/). The second version (downloadable at the current webpage) considers the same emissions of version 1, but updated gridmaps are reported. Therefore the two datasets are compatible as total emissions (ktons) but not as spatial distribution.

In addition version 2 provides separate emissions for NMVOC deriving from long and short cycle carbon (named here as NMVOC_fossil and NMVOC_bio, respectively). Moreover, the non-road transport sector has been split into shipping, aviation (distributing emissions for the three flight phases: takeoff/landing (LTO), climb-out/descending (CDS) and cruise (CRS)) and the remaining part (TNG). Civil supersonic aviation is also considered (SPS).

We recommend using retrospective scenarios version 2 for modeling purposes being consistent with the EDGARv4.3.1 that is an intermediate step to the most recent release of EDGARv4.3.2 (coming soon). Version v1 of these scenarios is available on request to the authors.

Note 1: Definition of particulate matter species: PM10 includes all particles with diameter up to 10 micrometer, PM2.5 all particles with diameter up to 2.5 micrometer, BC includes all elemental carbon (part of PM2.5), OC includes all organic carbon (also a part of PM2.5). The different species PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC are not additive and the sum of BC and OC is not significantly larger than PM2.5.

Note 2: A scientific publication with a more extensive description of the scenarios is available at Monica Crippa, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank Dentener, Diego Guizzardi, Katerina Sindelarova, Marilena Muntean, Rita Van Dingenen, Claire Granier: Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3825-3841, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3825-2016, 2016.

Conditions of emission data use and code of conduct

Users of the data are obliged to acknowledge the source of the data with a reference to the JRC PEGASOS website and to the following scientific publication:
Monica Crippa, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank Dentener, Diego Guizzardi, Katerina Sindelarova, Marilena Muntean, Rita Van Dingenen, Claire Granier: Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3825-3841, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3825-2016, 2016.
Co-authorship and/or involvement in scientific publications using these data are very much appreciated. User's comments and requests can be sent via email to the authors. The emission scenario datasets should not be passed to third parties or projects without notification to the data provider.

Emission scenarios overview

2010 SCENARIOS GRIDMAPS (annual and monthly)

Contacts

For more information or data: JRC-EDGAR@ec.europa.eu